How to Invest into the Unexpected
Rolling the dice on key decisions
I am happily blogging from the backyard in my place in Long Beach. I’ve made the drive across the country following a decision that is bringing me closer to my longterm goals. For me, this decision was something I went back and forth on for a long time; where should I move?
I knew the answer would reveal itself at the right moment, and it was a game of patience waiting around for it to come. In fact, it tested my patience. One day I would have plans for here, the next plans for there. All the while I knew in the back of my head that I was waiting for a shot. My shot.
“Given a 10 percent chance of a 100-times payout, you should take that bet every time.- Jeff Bezos
I saw this quote a while ago and it’s always stuck with me. Maybe it’s just because I’m not a math guy, but until recently I haven’t understood the value in placing faith in those odds. When it comes to making decisions however, it makes perfect sense.
I believe perspective shifts will unlock more than smartness will. With that being said, I want to break down this quote and introduce a few concepts to keep in mind when trying to make the best decision because often times- we haven’t looked beyond a single perspective.. which isn’t much of a decision at all.
Know Your Payout
So first things first, we gotta figure out our ideal outcome- I always start at the end. Let’s exchange the word payout for value. Not every decision needs to revolve around money, so we don’t need to explicitly talk about a payout in terms of financial gain. Think in whatever would make you 100x more valuable. Is it a relationship? Or is it a business? You need to know what the best possible scenario is for you so you know what to aim at.
It’s going to become incredibly easy to understand which choices you make will bring you closer to what that ideal outcome is. The hard part is doing it. If you are going to get to your payout, what decisions do you need to make or rather sacrifices need to be made such that you move closer to your goal?
If you want to 1x, 10x, or 100x your value then you obviously need to be doing certain routines to scale. Knowing your payout is important because when you understand what you should make opportunities around- the chances of you becoming closer to getting to roll those dice becomes more and more present.
Create opportunities for 10% Chances
So now we understand what we’re looking at, and we didn’t hold back in terms of what we believe we can do. This opens up the playing field to make the moves that will get you to that outcome.
Moon shot thinking is a concept revealed by Astro Teller that states getting 10x better is often easier than getting 10% better. The basic idea is that when we’re focused on getting 10% better we’re not utilizing the tools and resources that could easily multiply our efforts.
You want to know how to create opportunity? Work. It’s massive action. It’s creating those opportunities by simply doing more than the person to the left of you or right of you is doing. The difference now being you know exactly what you want, so the window of your opportunity is becoming more laser-focused than ever. To that point let me share with you- where our focus goes, energy flows.
Regardless of how long it takes, when you follow through with this you will eventually create an opportunity that will be an obvious tell as a step closer to your payout. You’ll be able to do something that get’s you the opportunity to 10x- and you need to be ready to take it.
Unfortunately you can miss your opportunity. Just like Em said, “would you capture it or let it slip?” Let me tell you- we’re going to let it slip. It’s reality of life. Most people are unwilling to step into the unknown and follow through on not only what it takes to earn their shot- but also build on it in the future.
The whole process of getting to the opportunities are what you have to fall in love with, but the actual decision of making changes isn’t something you must love. It comes with so much uncertainty and unknowns- should you consider them. Here’s how to embrace that:
If you were going for the opportunity to 100x your payout it’s obvious that once the outcome is achieved the situation will look completely different than at the start. With that being said, you’re simply not going to be able to take every detail into account when it comes to feeling secure about the unknown.
It’s something to be embraced because within that opportunity is the grand prize we’re all searching for.